Sunday 1 January 2017

Demonetization and Other Stories

The success of any program can be gauzed by the target fulfilled as laid out in its objective.Though the government did quite a few gimmicks with regard to the objectives of demonetisation,the holy war or yagna had initially started as a fight against the black money and counterfeit currency.Since then the narrative was transformed very successfully to promoting plastic money and digitalization with behaviourial change being hailed as the prime success.Though much has been written about the clumsy execution (it was very clumsy indeed with the constant tinkering with the rules) it is important to note how the execution not only was harrasing for the honest people,it hardly seemed to banter the dishonest as initially promised.
First,the initially declared target of fighting black money.The dishonest found it quite easy to bribe their way through the bankers.Second,their is no reason those caught in the tax net can not get away by bribing the tzx sleuths.This was quite early flagged by Tavleen Singh in her article and the government had absolutely no device to plug this important leakage.When the whole institional set up of India has been corrupted to its core,on what premises was the government expecting the bankers and tax sleuths to do their duty with honesty?The now empty roar of every dishonest being caught is a mere theatric.When the shock and awe target failed to dampen their spirit what good will come out of enquiry.Were not the tax sleuths active till now in catching the hoarders of black money?What did they achieve in these many years?Though the media played too much over hoarders being caught,in reality,they are very small fishes ranging from few lakhs to some crores.Were is the promised three-four lakhs crore that the government expected not to return to the bank (as admitted in SC)?Only three lakh crores were left to be deposited as on Dec 21.Since then no new figure has arrived.Multiple ministers are carefully sheilding this fact that since we have started an amnesty scheme (pay 50 per cent,keep the rest),all money will natuarally return to bank.But will three lakhs crores be decalred under the scheme?Impossible.Simply because people have easier means to convert the money,including paying a bribe to the banker or through hawala channels shelling out quite less than the 50 per cent figure of the government (the main reason why the government brought the amnesty scheme,almost twenty days after the announcement of demonetization).Why did not the government further dropped the 50 per cent figure,this will be discussed at the end of the article.
Apart from this glaring loophole at the planning stage,the execution was made a harrowing experience by the approach of government by declaring time and again that their was no fault in execution but we are changing rules based on feedback.But did they really needed a feedback about this being a marriage season or times for rabi crops?Could not the relief provided at the later stage started from the very beginning?And whose idea it was to allow people to exchange notes?I mean what was the use of allowing people to exchange notes?Demonetization could have been a simple two step process in which on one hand people could have deposited old notes and on the other they could have withdrawn their money through cheque or withdrawl form.By this process,every penny would have entered and exited in a recorded manner without that foolishness of id proof xerox that was so blatantly used for illegal conversion.Entering every Rs.4500 entry every time one reaches with old notes was an extra and useless burden on employees too.After noticing the flaw in the exchange regime,the government should had done away with it completely but it strangely continued to flourish in a lessened figure.
Next comes the ATM fiasco.What was the need to launch new money that needed a recalibrated ATM?Either the government should have released the prototype before and gave sufficient time to the bancks for recalibrating the ATMs (after all,new notes wont have given away the top secret) or better still the governemnent could have printed the new notes corresponding to the previous size only.Why to care for beauty when the system is actually burning?
Lastly,we can talk about the achievements.The demonetization was quite successful in routing out the scrouge of counterfeit currency.That the terrorist tried to loot banks in J&K as well as other intelligence reports are testimony to this fact.But the governement seems less interested in taking credit for this achievement.It is busy hailing the success of behaviourial change in the people with regard to plastic money and digitalization.But this we can emphatically declare after cash reaches back in people's hand.Taking out all the money from people's hand and then when they are only left with a single choice of paying online or plastic,hailing this as a behavioural change is sick.But first the preparation for this important achievement.Why did not the government waved of the extra transaction charges in the run-off of demonetization.Shopkeepers too could have been encouraged to install PoS machines.These doles were only provided after the demonetization seemed too large a disrution to the economy.Most honest people then would have got adjusted to the idea of digitaliztion had these doles been offered six months back.Digging a well when the house is on fire is never a good idea.Second,how much company like PayTm were operated by the public sector bank?Some MPs rightly raised the issue of going digital via a company having substantial share-holding by Chinese comapany (since then PayTm made a separate entity to handle online payment with completely Indian holding).Why should Indian digital revolution benefit the Chinese?Then reports came that plastic cards such as VISA provide benefit to their MNC owners for every transaction done.Even government is offering prizes only on those card transaction which is done via RuPay cards.But why did my bank offered me VISA cards in the first place?I did not asked for VISA instead of RuPay.Such ad hoc encouragement of digitalization is sad.But more importantly,did the people really took this change?I have only found one shop in my vicinity taking PayTm,but could not pay digitally due to a minor problem.My interent connection was not working properly.This in one of important urban towns.What about the village?Lastly,once people are getting access to cash,they are returning to their old habits except in places where they have clear incentives as in petrol pumps.By the way,saftey oragnizations have flagged up the issue of using PoS machines in the vicinity of petrol pumps (another example of foresight by the government).
This were only the directly related issues.Collateral damage too was huge.More than hundred people died.It did not make much furore since human lives are cheap in the East.Bussinesses suffered unexpected losses and many people lost thier employment.Employment generation figures are already low.I certainly hoped that at the end of the day government will take measure steps to boost employment figures.But the government stopped after offering relief to farmers and small business-men.The media has hailed this corrective measures for the poor,neo-middle class and middle class.Here I come to the last part of the article.Demonetization battle was fought on the name of poor against the rich and corrupt upper class.It ended with glory to Lohia,JP and Kamaraj.Each of them were freedom fighters and tall leaders of independent India.But distictly socialist.Socialism was the fashionable economic order in the newly emerging Third World just after the end of imperialism.This no longer cuts much ice in any part of the world except in India.Socialist government,by structure itself,is corrupt with too much power to the few in the ruling class and much government meddling in business.World over socialist government have become either collapsed or become defunct.This has been India's bane for seven decades,our own Achilles' heel.Indian leaders just refuses to embrace capitalism.Forty-five years after India Gandhi rode the "Garibi Hatao" wave,no one chooses to disembark off this time-tested formula.To make matters worse,PVN the architect of new-India and AB Vajpayee,his successor in this regard,failed to win public support of their policies in consequent general elections.No doubt,the Prime Minister failed to hail them after demonetization.Some how,capital and profit remains a crime.The communist agenda of taking money from the rich and distibuting amongst poor remains fashionable in academics even after the ebb of naxalism.The discoure is not simply about punishing the dishonest and those making black money.It is being hailed as a step that caused profound pain to the rich and as a result,happiness to the poor.The class battle still continues.And it will continue unless and until the people recognize the meaning of the pithy saying "Socialism is the best way of assuring poor about their welfare while simultaneously keeping them poor".After all,once they are no longer poor wont the class battle and those championing their cause will loose revelance.The government could have uneartherd the whole black money with an amnesty scheme with low taxation.But then this would not have been hailed as a pro-poor measure against the benefits of the upper class.
Creating money has become sin in this country.Rich must always be punished one way or the other.No matter he is honest or hard-working.If he is earning,he must be blamed for others' poverty.But what sort of institutions are serving the honest and poor?He/She will die a terrible death in a government hospital without proper care.His child (if happens to be from general cateogory) will be discriminated against in getting admission to colleges and government jobs.Private services are still too costly in this country thanks to protectionist measures against competition.His/Her daughter wont be married properly since he/she shell out dowry.The prosecution in such cases cut a sorry figure.Most importantly,who are the ones forcing everyone everyday to shell out bribe giving birth to this practice of black money.Business-men and honest people are routinely being harrased even in carrying out thier daily functions.But who cares about the business-men?And about the commoners,who are being hailed as foot soldier in this fight against corruption,how many of them are actually honest?Is not all this a fit legacy of the socialist era.And yes,not a single politician has so far been held in this war against corruption and only one high-level officer.So,all leaders and bureaucrat are honest?
Last line must go hailing the pro-active stand of the honourable Supreme Court.The SC is still examining the legal sanctity of the measure after the exercise has ended.What if it finds it illegal?Will the step be rolled back.But why will it be declared illegal in the first place?Is not it giving strength to the socialistic principles of our directive principles.No matter if few fundamental rights are a casuality.After all,since the famed Kesvanada Bharati case,SC has been sacrificing the fundamental rights at the alter of socialism.

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