Bihar : The Last Laugh

State of Bihar is again at cross-roads.The improved roads of Bihar since last decade has already ruled out Bihar out of media bad-light but a new political dilemma has brought it under shudder review.Political pundits are crying hoarse over the outcome of Lok Sabha elections but the fact remains that people have no real choice.Exactly speaking,no clear-cut choice as in 2009 elections.And a more dangerous situation lingers.Bihar may again be a marginal player in nation politics if it does not plays a big role in formation of next government at center.Apart from number game,many startling changes linger high upon the political moral of public.The blue-eyed boy in the center of storm is certainly the CM Nitish Kumar,once held as being Vikas Purush(Development Man) but now his fight seems to turn against the alleged communal agenda of his Gujarat counter-part Narendra Modi.A divorce between ruling partners BJP and JDU ensured Laloo Prasad Yadav,who had been by most journalist written off in Bihar politics,got a chance to recover his lost ground.In terms of total registered voters,the difference in percentage of votes between RJP and JDU was a minor 2%.With JDU breaking its tie with BJP,RJD could have easily pipped JDU had Laloo been able to held its fort of M-Y(Muslim-Yadav) votes.Then Laloo could have comfortably garnered close to 20 seats as in 2004 parliamentary elections.But Nitish breaking with BJP will further divide Muslim mandate as in 2009.A tie-up with Congress could have the most helpful circumstance.As if to spiral the dice further,the court intervened just in time to book RJD supremo for corruption charges in the infamous fodder-scam. JDU and BJP together could have further cashed on the ruling to increase their tally but their mutual fight leaves neither time nor will to attack Laloo.The other small player but big politician,Ram Vilas Paswan could have had a fruitful time but the political uncertainty of future allies will not reap rich dividends for him.And what will the two big players,JDU and BJP loose?It seems BJP has nothing much to loose,of course except one of its oldest ally which ended its political isolation.And on moral front,a CM who could have been used to show-cause the developments works of a NDA government.But intruding further,BJP may manage to improve its tally in Bihar but its certainly loosing important numbers in its run off for the Parliamentary elections.Lastly,talking about the decision maker,Nitish.JDU has lost enough grounds in terms of upper caste and Hindu votes to concede his first position in turns of Lok Sabha seats in Bihar to RJD or BJP as per claims by poll surveys.But has his gamble to win over minority votes has completely failed can not be ascertained at once.The last elections show minority votes swaying towards non-player Congress winning it its face-saving 2 seats.It can very well go towards JDU.But the trump card which all seem to miss is women votes.This factor worked only too well for ruling coalitions in 2010 assembly elections helping it touch massive total of over 200 seats.The law and order as well as women education promoted by his good governance,if sustained till next year,could certainly help Nitish beat his previous tally of 20 seats.The point is wether a tally of around a score seems insufficient to prop his name for prime-ministerial candidature,no matter how fractured is the overall mandate in the country.A lot will depend upon how RJD,Congress and LJP manage to bifurcate the caste votes.A voting pattern breaking along the fault lines of religion will certainly take all the credit coming from good governance away from JDU handing BJP close to 20 seats.The political chaos of Bihar ultimately proves to be a circus in which ultimately all lions can roar but are captive.Jinx can be broken only by public decision.Its necessary that people give a strong mandate to single party so that Bihar voice comes strong in the policies of next central government.